Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: optimistic declarations are delivered from multiple capitals. Immense energy is devoted on containing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from across the border, a capability provided through up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been scrambled to counter approaching guided weapons roared overhead – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: defensive missiles fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely supplied through Western nations. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: maybe the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from ruin and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a heavy machine gun fired at a aerial vehicle close by, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly imported technology. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: multiple fatalities, damage and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a reliance that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to replace in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from US administration provoked deep reactions, debate and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from American administration adheres to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, certainly, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership operates on a assumption familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration believes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to abandon the land that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does little to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from assuming that the status quo will not change more in its benefit in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but avoiding a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its favour.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to kill the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, primarily depend on continued Western support.
