A decade after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the country and caused disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in universities but scarcely any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with the basics. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two essays that seek neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover identity markers, levies, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the concept that there might be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should work out what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has has something to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
